AGP Executive Report

E-commerce & Air Cargo Strain (Colombia): Colombia’s ecommerce import boom is squeezing inbound air cargo capacity, with operators reporting thousands of tonnes weekly and some customers unable to book extra space; LATAM Cargo data shows US–Colombia ecommerce volumes up 53% in Jan–Aug, while capacity is falling faster than demand. Energy Tech Expansion (Colombia-linked): AIQ, an Abu Dhabi energy-tech firm, says it’s expanding beyond its home market and is already operating in Colombia among other countries, aiming to deploy AI across refineries, gas stations and digital stores. Trade & Infrastructure Finance (Colombia): A major COP loan deal is reported to widen Bogotá’s Autopista Norte, signaling continued investment momentum for urban transport infrastructure. Illicit Economy Pressure (Colombia): A new report highlights how cocaine trafficking and illegal gold mining are fueling a parallel economy in Colombia’s biggest cities, complicating fiscal recovery and state capacity. Regional Context (Brazil Runoff): Brazil’s presidential runoff is set for Oct. 25 after Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro fell short of a first-round majority, with potential spillovers for regional trade and investment sentiment.

Brazil Runoff Watch: Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula in Brazil’s first round, setting up an Oct. 25 second-round showdown after neither hit the required majority, with rightwing allies likely to shift votes. Colombia Illicit Economy: A new report highlights how cocaine trafficking, illegal gold mining and corruption are fueling a parallel economy in Colombia’s major cities, even as the state faces a heavy debt burden. Energy & Tech Expansion: UAE firm AIQ signed to enter India’s oil and gas sector, deploying AI across refineries, gas stations and digital stores; meanwhile, Norway’s Höegh Evi and Malaysia’s PETROS plan a Kuching floating LNG terminal targeting first gas by end-2029. Shipping Markets: Dry bulk sentiment is gradually improving as Capesize rates soften after last week’s gains. Aviation Connectivity: Colombia confirmed a new nonstop Barranquilla–New York flight, expected to start between late 2026 and early 2027. Food Industry Policy: California approved a voluntary label for not-ultra-processed foods, with rollout planned for 2029. Colombia Trade/Ag Exports: Colombia gets the green light to export beef and pork to the Philippines, opening a new Asia-Pacific market.

Colombia Aviation & Tourism: Colombia confirmed a new nonstop Barranquilla–New York flight, aiming to cut travel friction for business and tourism links from the Caribbean coast, with service expected between late 2026 and early 2027. Industrial Logistics & Trade: A USDA recall flagged 189 pounds of potato chip products made in Colombia as ineligible for U.S. meat-export rules, urging consumers not to eat affected “YUPI GOLPE CON TODO SABOR BBQ” mixed chips. Energy & Supply Chains: U.S. EIA data showed zero crude imports from Iraq last week; Colombia supplied 68,000 bpd among major U.S. suppliers. Mining & Environment: Wake Forest and CINCIA researchers briefed Pope Leo XIV on Amazon mercury pollution tied to gold mining, highlighting impacts on wildlife and Indigenous communities. Mobility & Consumer Demand: Colombia’s motorcycle market keeps climbing—1.03M units sold Jan–Sep 2026 (+28.3% vs. 2025), with 2026 projected near 1.38M. Agribusiness & Food Security: International training in Mexico targeted surveillance and management of maize and wheat diseases to protect yields and grain quality across the region.

Aviation & Trade Links: Colombia confirmed a new nonstop Barranquilla–New York flight, aiming to cut travel friction for tourism and business ties from the Caribbean coast, with launch timing expected between late 2026 and early 2027. Food & Exports: The Philippines granted sanitary approval for Colombian beef and pork imports, opening a new Asia-Pacific destination for livestock and processing firms (still requiring import permits per operation). Energy & Industry Finance: Massy Holdings flagged an accounting loss of about US$9.8m tied to its Caterpillar-related business sale in Trinidad and Tobago, with severance driving most of the hit. Mining & Compliance: UNODC data shows Colombia’s mostly illegal alluvial gold production expanded 4.5% by area in 2025, with growth concentrated on Afro-Colombian lands and detected even in some Indigenous reserves. Logistics & Consumer Safety: A U.S. recall targeted 189 pounds of Colombian-made potato chips due to ineligibility for meat exports to the U.S., with no confirmed illnesses reported. Higher Education: Four Colombian universities placed in QS Latin America’s top 20, led by Universidad de los Andes (8th).

Aviation & Logistics: Uruguay placed third in Latin America for international air passengers per inhabitant in 2025, helped by Carrasco International Airport and its cargo/logistics hub that supports pharma flows across the region. Trade & Food Industry: The EU imported 2.9M tonnes of coffee from non-EU countries in 2025, with Brazil leading and Colombia supplying 162,900 tonnes; the value jumped to €18.7B, signaling stronger pricing pressure for producers. Colombia Mobility & Consumer Markets: Colombia sold 1.03M motorcycles between January and September 2026 (+28% vs. 2025), with 2026 projected near 1.38M units as transport demand stays high. Mining & Compliance: UNODC data shows Colombia’s mostly illegal alluvial gold production expanded 4.5% by area in 2025, with most growth on Afro-Colombian lands and many zones where mining is not permitted. Agro-Exports: Philippines sanitary approval opens a new Asia-Pacific route for Colombian beef and pork exporters, though firms still need import permits. Security & Ports: Ghana’s minority lawmakers urged suspending Ghana–Colombia maritime cooperation over cocaine-linked concerns. Infrastructure Finance: Bogotá’s Autopista Norte gets a major COP loan as lenders back widening works.

Food Safety & Trade: Inexport Logistics LLC recalls 189 pounds of Colombian-made potato chips with chicharrón after USDA found the products ineligible for U.S. meat exports; no illnesses reported, but consumers are urged not to eat and to return or discard. Agro-Exports: Colombia gets Philippines sanitary approval to export beef and pork, though firms still need import permits before shipments start. Mining & Environment: UNODC and Colombia report mostly illegal alluvial gold expanded 4.5% by area in 2025 to 118,410 hectares, with 75% illegal and growth concentrated on Afro-Colombian lands. Energy & Industry: GeoPark says it’s ready to join fracking in Colombia, targeting unconventional potential in the Middle Magdalena Valley and other regions as the government reopens the door. Infrastructure Finance: A $1.2 trillion COP loan backs Bogotá’s Autopista Norte and Carrera Séptima works under the Accesos Norte Fase II PPP. Plastics Manufacturing: ColombiaPlast opens in Bogotá with 320+ exhibitors, alongside the FIB industrial fair, highlighting plastics, recycling and petrochemical capacity. Economy & Policy: Government sets a 6% growth target for 2026–2030 via a National Development Plan built on reconstruction, transformation, security and state efficiency.

Coffee Supply Chain: StoneX Group signed an agreement to acquire Integra Trading S.A.S., a Colombia-based coffee trader, exporter and processor with a certified mill near Medellín, aiming to expand direct origination and processing and connect Colombian output to StoneX’s global clients. Mining Operations: Aura Minerals will insource its mining fleet operations in Brazil by acquiring a company that will take over equipment leases and contractor workforce for its Apoena, Almas and Borborema gold operations, targeting in-house transition in January 2027 to improve availability and lower unit costs. Hazardous Waste Logistics: Colombia resumed international shipments for hazardous waste disposal after eight years, sending 300 tons of PCB waste from Santa Marta to Belgium for specialized treatment, with total elimination projected for 2028. Trade & Compliance: Colombia issued a decree banning imports of goods made wholly or partly with forced labor, setting up potential follow-on discussions with the U.S. that could affect existing tariff measures. Security & Industry Risk: Colombian authorities detained alleged drug kingpin Arash Ebrahimi Far (“The Kid”) for possible extradition, underscoring ongoing cross-border enforcement that can affect logistics and compliance environments.

Ghana-Colombia Security: Colombia’s port and visa links are under pressure after Ghana’s parliamentary minority urged a halt to the Tema–Cartagena maritime deal, citing cocaine-seizure concerns and UNODC data showing most Colombian cocaine moves by sea. Prison Capacity Expansion: Colombia plans to start operating the Renacer megaprison in Magdalena progressively from December, with capacity for 1,974 inmates and strong anti-communications security. Energy & Fuel Policy: President Abelardo de la Espriella ordered Colombia to reverse an October gasoline price increase, seeking alternatives amid international oil-price pressure. AI Infrastructure in Colombia: A 120-MW data center in Tenjo moved forward after ANLA approved a 220-kV transmission project to connect it to the Bacata grid, supporting a broader 144-MW expansion. Mining & Licensing: Aris Mining completed ESIA preparation for the Soto Norte gold-copper project in Santander and will begin community engagement ahead of environmental licensing. Trade & Tariffs: Colombia’s forced-labor import ban decree is set to be discussed with the U.S., with potential implications for the 12.5% tariff on affected goods. Climate Risk for Food & Water: UNICEF warns 25.8 million children across Latin America and the Caribbean face very high El Niño-related rainfall risks, threatening agriculture, safe water, and services. Plastics Industry Link: Italy’s ambassador highlighted Italian plastics tech’s 14% share of Colombia’s market during ColombiaPlast, pointing to packaging, automotive, and construction as key demand areas. Stablecoins Enter Commerce: Exodus launched “Exodus Checkout” with DIRECTV’s DGO in Latin America, starting in Argentina and planning expansion including Colombia.

Mining & Community Conflict: Colombia’s aerial glyphosate pilot for illicit coca crops in Putumayo is back on the agenda, with a proposed cap of 1,000 hectares and two AT-802 aircraft—while local leaders warn communities fear a repeat of past spraying impacts. Agro-Exports Under Pressure: El Niño, a stronger peso, higher domestic costs and persistent foreign market barriers are squeezing Colombian exporters; Analdex is pushing for emergency, cross-cutting support beyond debt relief to protect rural jobs and contracts. Energy & Climate Risk: A new report flags a super-strength El Niño that could disrupt Latin American supply chains, commodity output and infrastructure—drought threats in parts of Central America and northern South America, with flooding risks rising in key economies. Industrial Dealmaking: Massy Group is selling its Caterpillar business in Trinidad & Tobago to MACORP, a regional dealer with operations across Guyana and multiple Caribbean and Latin American markets, with assurances that workers won’t be directly affected. Finance & Tech: Nubank says it is not pursuing a Monzo takeover after share-price volatility tied to earlier speculation. Coffee Economy: On International Coffee Day, Colombia is highlighted as the U.S. supplier with the strongest consumer association, reinforcing the country’s export and branding pull.

Agro-exports Under Pressure: Colombia’s exporters are hit by El Niño, a stronger peso, higher domestic costs and tougher foreign-market barriers; Analdex is pushing for emergency support beyond debt relief, including liquidity and zero-interest working-capital loans. Monetary Policy: The Banco de la República raised the policy rate 0.25 points to 12.25% as inflation pressures persist, with El Niño and post-earthquake needs adding risk. Jobs Watch: Colombia’s unemployment climbed to 9.4% in August, the highest in nearly two years, with participation falling alongside fewer employed people. Security & Industry: Colombia’s state authority drive includes plans to militarize Public Force operations in Santa Marta after narco-paramilitary concerns, underscoring the security backdrop for logistics and operations. Energy Dealmaking: Massy Group is selling its Caterpillar dealership to MACORP, a move aimed at scaling the brand locally across the region. Payments for Industry: PXP partnered with OKTO to expand domestic payment rails and treasury tools across LatAm, including Colombia. Oil & Gas Tech: AIQ (ADNOC-backed) signed to enter India’s energy market, deploying AI across refineries and retail energy channels.

Payments & Fintech: PXP Partners with OKTO Payments to connect merchants to locally operated Latin American payment rails, adding instant pay-ins/payouts, treasury and liquidity tools across Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Argentina. Corporate Expansion: PepsiCo says it will invest US$1B in Colombia over five years to expand production, modernize plants and strengthen distribution, with the government framing it as job and farm support. Energy & Industry: Colombia’s security forces report major disruption of illegal mining infrastructure, arresting 124 people and disabling hundreds of production units while seizing fuel and heavy equipment. Infrastructure & Public Works: Colombia’s first mega-prison project in Magdalena (Sabanas de San Angel) is reported at 86% physical progress, targeting capacity near 2,000 detainees. Mining Markets: Aris Mining’s founder Neil Woodyer is inducted into Canada’s Mining Hall of Fame; the company operates Colombia’s Segovia and Marmato underground gold mines. Health & Pharma: Kyowa Kirin and Knight Therapeutics sign an exclusive Latin America distribution deal for mogamulizumab, covering Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Colombia. Agribusiness & Sustainability: A Colombian pilot tests turning invasive gorse into biomass pellets for thermal energy.

Energy & Investment: GeoPark plans a US$7 billion investment in Venezuela’s Bare oilfield, aiming to lift output to about 90,000 bpd by 2038, with operations starting in the Orinoco Belt in December. Food & Manufacturing: PepsiCo will invest US$1 billion in Colombia over five years to expand production, modernize plants and strengthen distribution, linking the move to the government’s “Misión Crecer” growth push. Security & Mining: Colombia’s security forces report 124 arrests and the disabling of 269 illegal-mining units since Aug. 7, seizing fuel, heavy machinery and dredging equipment tied to armed-group financing. Sustainability & Engineering: A Bogota university pilot is testing whether invasive gorse can be converted into biomass pellets for thermal energy after authorities remove it from high-Andean ecosystems. Trade & Logistics: The Port of Bilbao will return to Fruit Attraction in Madrid, highlighting cold-chain innovation and new container services for fresh produce. Aviation MRO: AAR will buy a 65% stake in MRO Holdings, expanding maintenance capacity with a regional hub in El Salvador that also serves Colombia. Policy Debate: A Colombian senator rejects fracking re-promotion, warning of major freshwater needs amid El Niño-driven water stress.

Payments & Commerce: Getnet and Nayax announced a global strategic partnership to let operators of vending machines, EV chargers and other unattended commerce use integrated cashless payments via Getnet’s acquiring network, starting in Chile then expanding across Spain, Portugal, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Health Industry: Knight Therapeutics signed an exclusive distribution deal with Kyowa Kirin for mogamulizumab (POTELIGEO) in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Argentina, with Knight handling regulatory approvals and commercialization. Aviation Infrastructure: Airports in Latin America and the Caribbean will need about US$178B over 30 years to grow capacity for passenger demand rising from 809M to ~1.5B by 2045, with spending projected to jump sharply by mid-century. Energy & Logistics: Colombia’s Rionegro terminal plan moves forward as the second runway waits on land and money, while Colombia also faces gas rationing tied to a regasification technical failure. Agriculture Supply Chains: Banana producers across Latin America, including Colombia, face mounting weather, disease and cost pressures as El Niño uncertainty grows. Security & Trade: Colombia extradited alleged rebel leader “Araña” to California on narco-terrorism charges, following leadership changes in Bogotá.

Energy & Gas: Petrobras may add Colombia’s Sirius offshore gas project to its 2027-2031 plan, pending an environmental license and further consultations with affected communities. Manufacturing & Agribusiness: PepsiCo will invest $1 billion in Colombia over five years, with plans focused on manufacturing upgrades, distribution expansion, and support for more than 2,000 farmers and small businesses. Trade & Retail Rules: Colombia is pushing for a more level playing field as Temu and Shein expand, with calls to adjust tax and policy treatment for parcel-based imports. Transport Regulation: A bill in Colombia’s Congress aims to reduce pressure on ride-hailing drivers by tightening due-process rules around traffic checks and the D12 sanction. Public Safety & Cross-Border Crime: Colombian police arrested the wife and daughter of Ecuador drug boss “Fito” Macias, in an operation involving the FBI and Ecuadorian authorities. Climate & Industry: El Niño is already forcing chefs and food supply chains to rethink menus amid drought, floods, and heat-driven ingredient disruptions.

Food & Manufacturing Investment: Colombia President Abelardo De La Espriella says PepsiCo will invest $1B over five years to expand production, modernize operations and strengthen distribution—backed by claims of 2,000+ farmers and support for small shopkeepers. Energy & Climate Finance: Colombia could receive up to €8M for forest carbon and biodiversity protection via a France-backed Seed Fund, aiming to strengthen forest governance and blended finance tools under the new Grow Mission. Industrial Risk (Metals): A potential US diesel export ban could hit Latin American metal producers by raising fuel costs, with mining heavily dependent on US diesel imports. Governance & Trade: FILBo names Sharjah as Guest of Honour for 2027 (Apr 20–May 3), signaling new publishing and translation cooperation with Colombia. Security & Cross-Border Crime: Colombian police arrest the wife and daughter of Ecuador drug boss “Fito” (Los Choneros), in an operation involving the FBI and Ecuadorian authorities.

Food & Agri Investment: PepsiCo will invest $1 billion in Colombia over five years, aiming to expand production, modernize operations and strengthen distribution—supporting 2,000+ farmers and local shopkeepers. Energy & Industry: Colombia is dealing with gas rationing after a technical failure at a regasification facility, while Petrobras is reportedly considering adding a Sirius gas project to its 2027-2031 plan. Security & Supply Chains: Colombia extradited alleged FARC dissident leader Geovany Andrés Rojas (“Spider”) to the US on drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism charges, signaling a tougher security posture. Manufacturing & Trade: Colombia’s biotech sector gets a boost as the EIB backs a vaccine/biopharma producer with a €15M venture debt loan for expanded manufacturing capacity. Water & Farming Resilience: Global Water Challenge and Cargill expand their Cargill Currents partnership into Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica and Türkiye to improve water access, sanitation and more efficient farm water use.