AGP Executive Report

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed new Section 301 tariffs tied to forced-labor import rules, with rates of 10% or 12.5% covering imports from 60 economies, plus a special textile mechanism; comments are open until July 6 and a hearing is set for July 7. Construction & Ground Engineering: Vinci’s Geoquest agreed to buy Grupo TDM’s geosynthetics division, operating across Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, to expand ground engineering solutions for infrastructure and mining. Foreign Investment Watch: Colombia saw foreign direct investment rise to US$3.8B in Q1 2026, up 34.4% year-on-year, though it remains below prior years’ levels. Packaging & Processing: EXPO PACK México 2026 drew 18,400 attendees and 6,100 exhibitors, highlighting food, pharma, industrial manufacturing and other sectors driving regional packaging demand. Energy & Industry Signals: Jet fuel output hit record highs in the U.S. as refinery runs and yield shifts increased exports, while drilling activity showed mixed regional rig counts. Mining Safety: Reports point to a deadly coal mine explosion in central Colombia, underscoring ongoing risks in extractive operations.

Energy & Inflation Watch: OECD headline inflation rose to 4.4% in April as energy inflation jumped to 13.2% YoY, while Colombia still posted negative inflation—an unusual mix that keeps cost pressure and policy tradeoffs in focus. Climate Diplomacy: UN climate talks in Bonn are framed as a key step to sustain a “just transition” away from fossil fuels, with calls to protect workers and communities and keep forest protection momentum. Oil Flows: After a prior halt, the US imported about 43,000 bpd of Iraqi crude last week; Canada stayed the top supplier, with Colombia listed among smaller contributors. Colombia Spotlight: Captain James Rodríguez addressed backlash tied to a World Cup farewell moment involving President Petro’s daughter, aiming to prevent the controversy from derailing team focus. Business in Colombia: XS.com closed its LATAM roadshow with a private Medellín event for partners and a retail trader seminar, highlighting its IB program and multi-asset trading push. Food & Agriculture: Nestlé is advancing climate-resilient robusta coffee varieties in the Ivory Coast to boost yields and reduce climate risk.

Aviation & Trade: IATA’s Americas AGM in Rio frames the World Cup as a test of execution for airlines and regulators, stressing that hosting alone won’t deliver results—coordination will. Logistics & Security: Mexico seized $1.3M in pirated World Cup jerseys in Mexico City ahead of the June 11 kickoff, showing how demand for cheaper imports is driving enforcement pressure. Industrial Policy & Compliance: OnCallColombia launched direct electronic FBI Channeler submissions in Colombia, cutting reliance on mailed ink fingerprint cards for visas, work, and licensing deadlines. Mining & Environment: SINCHI identified mercury-resistant bacteria in Colombian Amazon mining sediments, pointing to bioremediation options for rivers and wetlands hit by artisanal gold extraction. Energy & Climate Risk: Colombia is bracing for El Niño (80% likelihood), with potential heat, water stress, fires, and knock-on effects for food and energy production. Packaging & Circular Economy: PR3 unveiled a global reuse symbol designed to help companies label reusable packaging systems, aiming to cut single-use output and emissions. Agriculture & Health: Experts warn lightning deaths often come from people being outdoors during storms, urging stronger prevention culture and adherence to standards. Markets & Industry: Reuters reports SpaceX’s IPO is drawing retail frenzy, with brokers setting low account minimums and investors facing access and fill-risk. World Cup (Colombia): Group K includes Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia, with Colombia set to play at Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca (vs Uzbekistan on June 17) and also at Estadio Guadalajara (vs DR Congo on June 23).

FBI Services for Colombians: OnCallColombia says it has become the first provider in Colombia to submit FBI background checks through a direct electronic channel, cutting out the need to mail ink fingerprint cards—aimed at people facing visa, residency, work, licensing, and immigration deadlines. Macroeconomy Watch: DANE reports Colombia’s May inflation climbed again to 5.84% year-on-year (0.47% month-on-month), with housing, utilities and fuels leading the pressure—raising concerns about progress toward the central bank’s 3% target. Mining Safety: Seven workers died in a methane-related blast at an illegal coal mine in Sutatausa, Cundinamarca, prompting investigations by the National Mining Agency and renewed scrutiny of safety compliance. Environment & Industry Risk: SINCHI researchers found mercury-resistant bacteria in Colombia’s Amazon mining sediments, pointing to possible bioremediation approaches for rivers and wetlands hit by artisanal gold extraction. Circular Packaging Push: PR3, a reuse alliance, launched a new global symbol to mark reusable packaging and reuse systems, designed to be distinct from the recycling logo and support reuse over single-use. Energy/Climate Outlook: Colombia is bracing for El Niño, forecast with 80% certainty to start this month and extend into early 2027, with potential impacts on heat, water availability, fires, and food and energy production. Diplomacy & Politics: A U.S.-Colombia dispute flared after Trump endorsed runoff candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, which Bogotá called interference in national sovereignty.

El Niño Watch: Colombia is bracing for an El Niño event with 80% likelihood, with worst-case heat waves, water shortages, bush fires, and knock-on risks for food and energy production. Inflation Update: DANE reports May inflation at 5.84% year-on-year (0.47% monthly), with housing, utilities and fuels driving the biggest monthly jump—raising pressure on household costs. Mining Safety: Seven workers died after a methane-related blast at an illegal coal mine in Sutatausa, Cundinamarca; the National Mining Agency will investigate, as accidents tied to weak safety compliance remain common. Reusable Packaging Push: Colombia-based designers helped PR3 launch a new global symbol to mark reusable packaging and reuse systems, aiming to cut single-use packaging and emissions. World Cup Economy & Culture: With the 2026 tournament approaching, Colombia’s business and consumer buzz is rising—from partnerships with national team stars to match-day spending and logistics demand. Diplomatic Tension: Colombia and the U.S. trade accusations after Trump endorsed runoff candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, escalating concerns over sovereignty and election interference.

Mining Safety: Seven miners died after an explosion at a coal mine in Sutatausa, Cundinamarca, with preliminary reports pointing to accumulated underground gas; Colombia’s National Mining Agency will investigate. Humanitarian Logistics: Colombia sent about 100 tons of aid from Cartagena to Cuba—food, specialized medicines, hospital supplies, electrical materials and solar panels—to support recovery from Hurricane Melissa and ease Cuba’s energy strain. Energy & Oil Policy: Analysts say a pro-business win in Colombia’s June 21 runoff could reopen the oil and gas sector, after years of declining crude output and investment uncertainty under Petro’s transition agenda. Agri-Biosecurity: While not Colombia-specific, the return of New World screwworm to Texas is driving livestock quarantine and import limits, a reminder for regional producers to watch animal-health risks. Corrosion Innovation: Colombia is developing natural anti-corrosion coatings using avocado, coffee and plantain peel residues, aiming to cut maintenance costs for industrial assets. Branding & Industry Marketing: Colombian companies are leaning into World Cup demand via partnerships with national team stars, boosting product launches and special collections.

Inflation Watch: Citigroup warns El Niño could lift Colombia’s inflation by up to 3.26 points in the six months after it arrives, hitting food and electricity costs as drought pressures agricultural output. Holiday & Demand Signals: Colombia adds a new annual public holiday for the Virgin of Chiquinquirá starting July 2026, with the first observance landing on Monday July 13—another nudge for consumer and logistics planning. World Cup Economy: Colombia’s 2026 World Cup run is already reshaping retail and delivery, with analysts projecting about 250,000 delivery orders per match day and sales spikes for fast food and snacks. Energy Transition: A global push to move away from fossil fuels is gaining momentum after a Colombia-hosted conference in Santa Marta, framed as a faster path than slow UN climate talks. Logistics & Industry Outlook: New market forecasts from Coherent Market Insights point to continued growth in network attached storage, shipping containers, batteries, and freight—useful signals for Colombia’s industrial supply chains. Aerospace & Defense: Brazil plans to expand its Saab Gripen fleet with 20 more jets, supporting long-term aerospace manufacturing capacity in the region.

Reuse & Circular Packaging: PR3 launched a new global symbol to mark reusable packaging and reuse systems, designed by Bogotá creators Nicole Ascanio Rodriguez and Juan Navarrete, and set to appear on cups, bottles, bins, wash facilities and return systems to push reuse beyond recycling. Colombia’s Electoral Oversight: The CNE officially certified Colombia’s first-round presidential results, setting a June 21 runoff between far-right Abelardo de la Espriella (43.73%) and leftist Iván Cepeda (40.91%), after objections stayed under 0.7% of polling stations. Trade & Forced Labor Risk: The USTR published Section 301 findings saying Colombia failed to effectively prohibit and enforce forced-labor import bans, opening the door to corrective tariff remedies. Environment Protection: Colombia permanently protected the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta as a Renewable Natural Resources Reserve (“Heart of the World”), covering 1.5M+ hectares and restricting future extractive activities. Agri-Biosecurity Watch: New World screwworm was confirmed in Texas, triggering quarantines and raising concerns for cattle supply chains and costs—an issue for regional livestock health planning. Mining Finance Scrutiny: Colombian Methodist churches plan to file a complaint alleging HSBC breached OECD responsible business conduct guidelines in financing Glencore.

Colombia Election Oversight: Colombia’s Constitutional Court struck down two key provisions of the new Survey Law, including limits on when poll results can be published and requirements tied to microdata and technical delivery to the National Electoral Council—leaving most of the law intact but dealing a blow to the most controversial rules. Trade & Export Risk: A U.S. forced-labor tariff proposal could put Colombian exports in the crosshairs, with Washington citing gaps in enforcement mechanisms; the move is already worrying exporters because it could raise barriers in the main destination market. Energy & Finance Watch: Parex Resources highlighted Colombia-focused growth after becoming the country’s largest independent oil and gas producer via its Frontera expansion plan, while investors weigh political and regulatory risk alongside oil-driven cash flow. Industrial Health Threat: USDA reported a new U.S. detection of flesh-eating screwworm in Texas, a reminder for livestock supply chains and biosecurity planning that can ripple into regional food production.

Colombia Runoff Politics: US President Trump endorsed conservative frontrunner Abelardo de la Espriella for Colombia’s June 21 runoff, praising him as “Smart, Strong, and Tough” and promising gains on growth, jobs, trade, and security—setting up a high-stakes contest against leftist Iván Cepeda. Trade & Forced Labor: The US Trade Representative proposed Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies over forced-labor enforcement failures, listing Colombia among the countries flagged. Mining Governance: A spotlight on Colombia’s mining cadastre stresses why getting the system right is critical now, as licensing and land administration remain central to investment and project timelines. Energy & Industry Risk: Colombia’s economy showed acceleration in Bancolombia’s NowCast model for 2Q26, with GDP growth projected around 2.6%—a signal for industrial demand and services. Maritime & Tourism: Colombia’s cruise season hit 174,371 passengers in Q1 2026 with 103 port calls, expanding beyond Cartagena toward Providencia, Leticia, and Cabo de la Vela. Aerospace Collaboration: Saab unveiled the first co-developed Gripen F for Brazil’s Air Force, underscoring long-running industrial cooperation and local engineering capacity.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. is proposing new forced-labor tariffs on about 60 economies (including Colombia) plus the EU, with duties of 10%–12.5% and a July 7 public hearing—while also separately weighing a 25% tariff on Brazil. Energy & Power Markets: Colombia’s electricity sales to Ecuador may be short-lived as El Niño threatens to cut hydro generation, with Colombia’s generators warning transfers could stop within weeks or months. Mining & Community Pressure: Glencore’s Cerrejón coal mine in Colombia is monitoring blockades that forced a temporary suspension of mining, rail and port operations, as communities demand restoration and reparations. Packaging Circularity: A new universal reuse symbol is being rolled out across multiple countries including Colombia, tied to standards for end-to-end reuse systems beyond recycling. Industrial Exports: Brazil is bringing 19 machinery firms to Exponor 2026 in Chile to push automation, energy efficiency and maintenance solutions for Latin American mining. Business Connectivity: DIDWW expanded SIP trunking to Colombia and other countries, aiming to boost enterprise voice infrastructure coverage. Labor & Industry: Ecopetrol’s largest union has launched a 24-hour strike over labor negotiations, adding pressure to Colombia’s energy sector.

Ecopetrol Labor Clash: Colombia’s largest oil union USO has launched a 24-hour strike at Ecopetrol production fields and refineries, citing stalled collective bargaining and demanding wage and labor-rights improvements; Ecopetrol says it’s open to dialogue and activated contingency plans to protect essential service. Electric Mobility Rules: Bogotá is moving to clarify regulations for “VELMPUs” (light electric personal mobility vehicles), aiming to reshape enforcement and bike-lane access as battery-powered riders keep growing. Energy Transition vs. Contracts: A fossil-fuel phaseout summit in Santa Marta drew countries to discuss reducing supply, while a Spanish power firm (Termocandelaria Power) filed a $198m investor-state claim against Colombia over payment and policy changes. Trade Compliance Pressure: The U.S. named India under Section 301 for alleged forced-labor risks, proposing 10%–12.5% extra tariffs—another reminder for exporters and supply chains. Diplomacy Appointment: Trump nominated businessman Nate Morris as ambassador to Colombia, a move that could signal a shift in bilateral relations as Colombia heads into a runoff. City Competitiveness: Oxford Economics ranked Bogotá fifth in Latin America, highlighting human capital and quality-of-life strengths.

Electoral Integrity Clash: Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro renewed allegations of election fraud ahead of the June 21 runoff, saying “verified” software changes allegedly inflated voter registry records by 885,409 and added 1,493 voting tables, with claims he can submit to authorities. Trade & Industry: Business group Analdex urged Colombia to fully normalize free trade with Ecuador after Ecuador lifted tariffs on Colombian goods effective June 1, noting the move coincided with a meeting involving presidential candidate Abelardo De la Espriella and sparked political interference concerns. Agroindustry Biosecurity: Colombia’s banana sector launched a public-private alliance to fight Fusarium TR4, bringing together growers’ associations, AGROSAVIA, and CAF to speed prevention, diagnostics, applied research, and solutions to protect exports and rural jobs. Oil & Gas Deal: Parex Resources completed its $500m acquisition of Frontera E&P assets, adding 37,000 boe/d and positioning Parex as Colombia’s largest independent upstream producer. Public Safety Procurement: Lakeland Fire + Safety expanded Latin American orders, including follow-on contracts in Colombia for head-to-toe fire protection gear for municipal and national fire services.

Colombia Runoff Politics: Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella surged to first place in Sunday’s presidential vote and will face leftist Iván Cepeda in the June 21 runoff, with both camps trading fraud allegations and accusations as campaigning turns sharper. Oil & Gas Policy: Colombia’s oil workers union USO backed fracking and a return to exploration ahead of the election, aligning with de la Espriella’s energy agenda. Cross-Border Trade: Ecuador lifted tariffs on Colombian goods and removed a customs security fee, ending a dispute that hit medicines, cosmetics, plastics and rubber. Mining & Materials: A new focus on rare earths highlights Colombia’s untapped potential for magnets and clean-tech supply chains, even as global buyers push for alternatives. Healthcare Diagnostics: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics will expand Alzheimer’s amyloid blood testing access across Colombia and other Latin American markets. Industrial Services: Aries Industries added Lining Group of America to expand robotic inspection and rehabilitation services into Mexico and Colombia. Security & Logistics: French forces seized 737kg of cocaine from a speedboat in the Caribbean and handed suspects and cargo to Colombian authorities.

Colombia Politics: A hard-right Trump fan, Abelardo de la Espriella (“The Tiger”), won Sunday’s first round with about 43.7% versus leftist senator Iván Cepeda’s ~41%, sending the race to a June 21 runoff focused on security and the economy after a campaign shadowed by armed-group violence and disputes over results. Energy & Deals: Colombia’s Promigas is set to buy a $1.1B renewable energy platform from Zelestra, with major law firms advising on the transaction. Oil & Gas Expansion: Parex Resources completed its $500M acquisition of Frontera E&P, making it Colombia’s largest independent upstream producer. Mining & Commodities: Energy Today Corp says it is pursuing talks with China’s Zijin Mining on a long-term concentrate offtake and possible up to $10M investment. Industrial Tech & Infrastructure: Aries Industries expands its dealer network via Lining Group of America, extending robotic underground inspection/rehab services to Mexico and Colombia (plus Europe). Agri-Food Markets: Corn futures ease as export shipments remain strong, with Colombia among key destinations. Consumer & Retail: Café Bustelo launches “Game Face” ahead of the World Cup with limited-edition cans and temporary face tattoos. Banking Stocks: Grupo Aval shares jump ~13% and Grupo Cibest rises nearly 10% on improving sentiment and solid results.

Colombia Election Fallout: President Gustavo Petro rejected the first-round preliminary vote count, alleging last-minute changes to the software used by the Bautista brothers’ firm and an 800,000-person discrepancy, while Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda both push for scrutiny before accepting results; with 99% counted, de la Espriella led with 43.7% vs Cepeda’s 40.9%, setting up a June 21 runoff. Trade & Logistics: Ecuador lifted a 100% tariff on Colombian goods effective June 1 after talks with de la Espriella, easing a border-security trade dispute and reopening smoother cross-border flows. Industrial Tech Leadership: TMEIC Americas’ IT VP Guillermo “Bill” Garcia highlighted how the company is modernizing IT to support manufacturing growth and faster transformation, with technology positioned as a CEO-level priority. Finance Partnerships: XS.com won “Best IB Program” at Wealth Expo Colombia 2026, spotlighting broker introducing-broker infrastructure and partner scaling across jurisdictions. Security & Supply Chains: US strikes on alleged drug vessels off Latin America have surpassed 200 deaths, underscoring ongoing risks for maritime logistics tied to illicit trafficking.